Swimming Blogs - Chris DeSantis
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A New Age
February 20, 2008
At the Sydney Olympics in 2000, Michael Phelps and Dara Torres stood in stark opposition. Phelps, at 15, was the youngest male Olympian in half a century . Torres, 33, once a precocious youngster herself, proving that a woman's swimming career shouldn't peak in your mid teens. Despite Phelps' presence, the men's and women's Olympic teams were older than they had ever been.
And yet, in some ways, swimming remains a young person's sport on the Olympic stage. Looking over the results, I was hard pressed to find very many Olympic Gold medalists older than 25. As recently as 1996, there was one individual gold medalist, Jeff Rouse, over the age of 25. In 1996 Jeff was 26 years old. In fact, only 3 out of the 39 individual medalists in 1996 were older than 25 and none were older than 26.
For the women in 1996, 5 of 39 medalists would have been from women older than 25 if you wipe Michelle Smith's likely drug aided swims from the book. In 1988 1 of 39 medalists, Vladimir Salnikov, was over the age of 25. For the women, just one woman, Jill Sterkel, won a medal over the age of 25. The numbers are similar for all the games in the post World War Two era. Even in 2004, just two gold medalists, Van Den Hoogenband and Hall, were over the age of 25.
2008 stands as a year to shatter this trend. Look at any event, men's or women's and you will find a lot of swimmers over the age of 25 who could be considered favorites or at least contenders. My breakdown by events for men:
50 Free: Gary Hall Jr- Defending Olympic Champion, 33. Roland Schoeman- 3rd Fastest 50 ever, 28 years old. Alain Bernard- Tied with Gary Hall for 4th fastest ever, 25 years old. Stefan Nystrand, SCM world record holder 50 and 100 M, 26 years old.
100 Free: Van Den Hoogenband- Fastest 100 ever, 30 years old. Nystrand is the only other man under 48. Bernard and Schoeman are the next fastest swimmers in history. Fillipo Magnina, the defending world champion, is 26.
200 Free: Phelps is the obvious favorite, but Van Den Hoogenband and Magnini have a strong chance at medaling.
400 Free: Grant Hackett has to be at least considered a contender at age 28. Erik Vendt, 27, has thrown down the gauntlet with his recent 3:44. This is an event with a lot of younger talent but there is a strong chance of one of these two medaling.
1500 Free: Vendt and Hackett again have a strong chance of medaling, but a long list of younger, talented swimmers headed by Tae Hwan Park of Korea, could win and it might not even be considered an upset.
America's stroke sprinting combination of Aaron Piersol, Ian Crocker, and Brendan Hansen will be 25, 26 and 27 respectively by the conclusion of the games. You have to figure as current world record holders in each of the stroke 100s they have a strong chance of winning. Piersol is one of two favorites in the 200 backstroke, while Hansen is favored to win the 200 breaststroke. Only the 200 fly and both IMs, likely to be won by Phelps, are without a legitimate older contender.
The dramatic increase in the amount of world class swimmers training and competing into their late 20s and 30s has dramatically changed the swimming landscape. Simply put, events are much deeper than they were even three or four years ago. Consider this comparison of world rankings from 2004 to 2007. Over that time period, Ian Thorpe's 400 meter world record of 3:40.08 remained unchallenged. However, in 2004, the 10th fastest 400 meter freestyle was 3:48.81, while in 2007 the 10th fastest 400 was 3:47.13. Keep in mind that 2004 was an Olympic year, where we typically see the most consistent depth across all events.
To me, this is great news for our sport. The amount of sponsorship money invested in the sport has been increasing dramatically. World class swimmers have been using the increased funding to extend their careers, and as a result swimming in Beijing will be more competitive and exciting than it has ever been.
Check back next week where I will discuss Dara Torres and the host of other older women who will be contending for medals in Beijing.
And yet, in some ways, swimming remains a young person's sport on the Olympic stage. Looking over the results, I was hard pressed to find very many Olympic Gold medalists older than 25. As recently as 1996, there was one individual gold medalist, Jeff Rouse, over the age of 25. In 1996 Jeff was 26 years old. In fact, only 3 out of the 39 individual medalists in 1996 were older than 25 and none were older than 26.
For the women in 1996, 5 of 39 medalists would have been from women older than 25 if you wipe Michelle Smith's likely drug aided swims from the book. In 1988 1 of 39 medalists, Vladimir Salnikov, was over the age of 25. For the women, just one woman, Jill Sterkel, won a medal over the age of 25. The numbers are similar for all the games in the post World War Two era. Even in 2004, just two gold medalists, Van Den Hoogenband and Hall, were over the age of 25.
2008 stands as a year to shatter this trend. Look at any event, men's or women's and you will find a lot of swimmers over the age of 25 who could be considered favorites or at least contenders. My breakdown by events for men:
50 Free: Gary Hall Jr- Defending Olympic Champion, 33. Roland Schoeman- 3rd Fastest 50 ever, 28 years old. Alain Bernard- Tied with Gary Hall for 4th fastest ever, 25 years old. Stefan Nystrand, SCM world record holder 50 and 100 M, 26 years old.
100 Free: Van Den Hoogenband- Fastest 100 ever, 30 years old. Nystrand is the only other man under 48. Bernard and Schoeman are the next fastest swimmers in history. Fillipo Magnina, the defending world champion, is 26.
200 Free: Phelps is the obvious favorite, but Van Den Hoogenband and Magnini have a strong chance at medaling.
400 Free: Grant Hackett has to be at least considered a contender at age 28. Erik Vendt, 27, has thrown down the gauntlet with his recent 3:44. This is an event with a lot of younger talent but there is a strong chance of one of these two medaling.
1500 Free: Vendt and Hackett again have a strong chance of medaling, but a long list of younger, talented swimmers headed by Tae Hwan Park of Korea, could win and it might not even be considered an upset.
America's stroke sprinting combination of Aaron Piersol, Ian Crocker, and Brendan Hansen will be 25, 26 and 27 respectively by the conclusion of the games. You have to figure as current world record holders in each of the stroke 100s they have a strong chance of winning. Piersol is one of two favorites in the 200 backstroke, while Hansen is favored to win the 200 breaststroke. Only the 200 fly and both IMs, likely to be won by Phelps, are without a legitimate older contender.
The dramatic increase in the amount of world class swimmers training and competing into their late 20s and 30s has dramatically changed the swimming landscape. Simply put, events are much deeper than they were even three or four years ago. Consider this comparison of world rankings from 2004 to 2007. Over that time period, Ian Thorpe's 400 meter world record of 3:40.08 remained unchallenged. However, in 2004, the 10th fastest 400 meter freestyle was 3:48.81, while in 2007 the 10th fastest 400 was 3:47.13. Keep in mind that 2004 was an Olympic year, where we typically see the most consistent depth across all events.
To me, this is great news for our sport. The amount of sponsorship money invested in the sport has been increasing dramatically. World class swimmers have been using the increased funding to extend their careers, and as a result swimming in Beijing will be more competitive and exciting than it has ever been.
Check back next week where I will discuss Dara Torres and the host of other older women who will be contending for medals in Beijing.
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Chris DeSantis is the Assistant Men's and Women's Swimming Coach at the University of Pennsylvania. In his spare time, he's trying to learn everything about swimming. Got a complaint, correction or suggestion? Post a comment or send him a message and expect a speedy response!
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