Swimming Blogs - Chris DeSantis

John Naber startled me, but I had to keep my composure. Mid-way through an answer to my question as to whether his 1976 Olympic men's team was the greatest ever, he threw in that he thought they were "until now". The comment got me thinking. In Omaha everyone seemed pretty confident that most first place finishers were gold medal favorites in Beijing, even going so far as to say that there would be swimmers left off the team that would be bronze medal favorites.

As good as team USA is, their dominance in some events may be more tenuous than you may think. In fact, there are no events in which the United States has the world's three fastest swimmers outside of the women's 100 backstroke. Looking at the event program for Beijing, you will find many of the highest ranked swimmers come from another country. The women's team only comes into Beijing as the world's fastest in the 100 and 200 backstroke and the 400 IM among the individual events. Meanwhile, Australia has the world's fastest sprint freestyler, breaststroker, and 200 IMer. They are favored in two out of three relays.

While the men have performed relatively better on the world stage since 2000, they too are favored in less events than you might think. They enter Beijing as the world's fastest in two freestlye events, the 200 and 1500. They are also at the top in both backstrokes and the 100 breaststroke along with the butterfly's and IM's courtesy of Mr. Phelps. In order for them to come close to matching the 1976 men, they would actually have to pull off upsets that would include American sprinters finishing 1-2 over Alain Bernard and Eamon Sullivan among others.

The most anonymous spoiler of them all is a 17 year old Japanese high school student named Ryosuke Irie. Prior to Irie the best junior backstroker the world had ever seen was the current Olympic defending champion Aaron Piersol. In 2000, when Piersol made his first Olympic team, he was a 1:57 in the 200 backstroke. In 2008, at the same age, Irie has bee 1:54.77, just a touch off the pace of the American's shared world record. As a 16 year old in 2007 he went 1:57.30.

I remember feeling so confident in 2000 that Lenny Krazylburg was the world's greatest backstroke, and that he could remain so for another four years. Sure, Piersol was younger and nearly as fast as him in the 200, but Lenny looked pretty invincible. Four years later, Piersol is invincible and Lenny has to fight it out to make the team. Now, four years after that, Piersol has a young gun breathing down his neck in Irie.

Such is often the fate of the world's greatest swimmers even in the prime of their careers. Even if they are the world's best at a young age and continue to improve, their improvement curve must remain relatively sharp or they risk being passed by. Consider also the example of Katie Hoff. At 15 she qualified for the Olympic team in the 400 IM in an oustanding time of 4:37.87. In a matter of years she was the world's best and still a teenager. Who could have guessed that by the time the next Olympiad rolled around, despite her improvement from 4:37 to 4:31, she would have a 15 year old from her own country just a body length behind her as she set the world record.

Even Phelps must improve, and dramatically, as he ages. Had he merely maintained his times from 2004, he would no longer be the United States best swimmer in any of his events, and swimmers like Laszlo Cseh and Gil Stovall would have beaten him at his best. I do not predict that Phelps will face a serious challenge individually in Beijing outside of his own teammate Ryan Lochte, but don't be surprised that come 2012 there is a serious challenger for him internationally in everything he swims. While we would like to see our favorite swimmers compete and win repeatedly, the wolves are always waiting.