Swimming Blogs - Chris DeSantis

Well this morning's prelims brought both joy and misery. Joy in seeing that I was right and that Daniel Gyurta was in top form for the 200 breaststroke. Misery in seeing Alexander Dale Oen miss the semi-final. Still, I can't be mad at myself, most would have picked him after his great 100 earlier in the meet.

It looks like I've also severely underestimated Laszlo Cseh, who has a strong chance for the silver medal in the 200 fly. I didn't get to watch prelims to get a feel for how others swam (Audrey Lecroix, for example) so I don't know how confident to be with my other picks. At least I can be confident that if Mike Gustafson were picking against me his picks would definitely be worse.

Day 8 Smarter Than Gustafson Picks:

50 Free Women:

1. Libby Trickett

2. Dara Torres

3. Marleen Veldhuis

Rationale: I was tempted to with Torres but as good as she's looked I think Trickett looks just a bit better. Veldhuis also has a ton of raw power and has proven herself on this stage so far. Cate Campbell has looked a bit shaky, just as her young teammate Emily Seebohm. The fifty more than any other has proven to be a veteran event in recent years and I see that trend continuing.

1500 Free Men:

1. Tae Hwan Park

2. Zhang Lin

3. Larsen Jensen

Rationale: I've been riding park the whole way through these picks and I don't see any reason to stop. This pick got a lot easier when it became very evident that Grant Hackett is not going to be a factor. Zhang Lin has also had a great games and should continue that in the mile where him and Park are consistent rivals. Larsen had a great 400 just getting nipped at the end. I think we can all agree that the mile is probably still his best event.

4x100 Medley Relay Women

1. USA

2. Australia

3. China

Rationale: Before the Olympics I thought this was going to be an absolute rout for the Australians, but two factors have since changed. First, Christine Magnuson has shown she can keep up and even outsplit her the Australian butterflyer on this relay, likely Jessica Schipper. Second, Magnuson's speed confirms that Natalie Coughlin will swim backstroke, where she has now considerably widened the gap between her and Seebohm. To boot Rebecca Soni looks on the ball in breaststroke. Still, the Australians should be slightly favored. The difference between Coughlin and Seebohm is roughly equivalent to Soni and Jones. If Magnuson splits even with Schipper, then it is Torres vs Trickett for all the marbles. In any case, its going to be an exciting race.

4x100 Medley Relay Men

1. USA

2. Australia

3. Russia

Rationale: I wish this relay could be the US versus an all star team made up by the rest of the world. Wouldn't you like to see Peirsol-Hansen-Phelps-Lezak vs Stoeckel-Kitajima-Bousquet-Sullivan? You're telling me that wouldn't be really entertaining? Alas, we are left with a US rout with Australia picking up the rear. Russia is arguably better than Australia for the first three legs but Sullivan is a huge advantage over Evgeni Lagunov. All the other nations with valuable legs have inherent flaws. Japan's other three parts just aren't good enough to get Kitajima on the medal stand, France has three great legs and nothing on backstroke. Canada is lacking in backstroke as well, and Britain is just a hair weaker than Russia in every leg.