Swimming Blogs - Chris DeSantis
Is the Next Generation Ready (Men)?
An alarm went off in my head to tell me one thing and one thing only: Rome is just six months away. Thats right: Beijing has drifted out of the rear-view. In just half a year Team USA will field another international team coming off perhaps its most successful summer ever.
At the same time, I realized that the faces of American swimming may be much different this coming summer. In the period from 2000-2008, a lot happened. Fastskins came and went. Chloroprene made certain swim pundits heads want to explode. But, perhaps most significantly, a healthy stable of reliable stars stuck around after their college years and became familiar. Now, many of those stars are either retired, thinking about retirement, or taking some time off. Unfortunately, the international swimming does not take a time off, so we are faced with a make or break summer for a new generation.
When was the last time, for instance, USA fielded a team without Aaron Peirsol swimming both backstrokes? Peirsol has been a mainstay since his silver medal performance in Sydney. He's been there consistently cleaning up the medals with a few hiccups mostly from his own teammates. Now we face the possibility of a World Championships without him. In this case, America has so much depth that it may not be a young gun stepping up on the team. Randall Bal has continued inching his way up the all-time rankings. Peter Marshall revived a once dead international career. Nick Thoman looked great racing at US Open after missing the team. Matt Grevers acquitted himself quite well in Beijing. A generation ago Piersol would have likely retired after four years in Austin along with the rest of them and Tyler Clary might be the next best thing- and he still might be.
In the breaststroke, the void left by the possible departure of Brendan Hansen is cavernous. No other American medalists waiting in the wings. Mark Gangloff has been consistent but never world best. Scott Spann, the heir apparent, has been mired by injury. Unlike backstroke, the US is somewhat lacking at this point. You need to be able to go 59 low to be competitive internationally now, and Hansen is still the only American under a minute. Is it too late to convince Ed Moses to make a comeback?
Butterfly would seem a sure bet with that North Baltimore kid still hanging around- however there has been discussion of an abridged event program for Mr. Phelps. I can't decide whether that means Phelps will only swim the 100 fly to focus on shorter events and clear up any ambiguity as to whether Michael Cavic can compete with him or whether he'll do 200 fly to lower the world record because he wasn't satisfied with his Beijing swim. Or whether he will swim both. However, if he doesn't contest one of these, with Ian Crocker possibly driving cross country playing guitar, Team USA will have to finally confront their butterfly future. The next highest ranked butterflyer in America is recent graduate Gil Stovall, followed by Davis Tarwater. The best of the rest is definitely Stanford Freshmen Bobby Bollier.
The IMs, particularly the 400, may also feel the loss of mainstays Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps. Tyler Clary looks poised to step up in this event. I don't know the status of perpetual bridesmaid Robert Margalis. In either case, there is a long way to go to challenge Laszlo Cseh as no other Americans have broken 4:10 besides Phelps and Lochte.
The sprint events are even more intriguing. We haven't heard much from the cast of America's dramatic relays this summer. Cullen Jones, Garrett Weber-Gale and Jason Lezak have been relatively quiet since Beijing. Nathan Adrian certainly seems poised to build on strong summer and remains America's best young sprinter. Alex Righi lost a swim-off to Adrian and a possible relay spot in Omaha. France's sprint machine is still churning abroad and ready to dethrone last summers champions.
The picture should start to clear itself in the next few months. The college championship season will flow into the big spring meets, followed by World Championship trials. I'll try and keep up every step in the way.
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