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Is the Next Generation Ready (Men)?

Chris DeSantis | Profile
January 26, 2009

An alarm went off in my head to tell me one thing and one thing only: Rome is just six months away. Thats right: Beijing has drifted out of the rear-view. In just half a year Team USA will field another international team coming off perhaps its most successful summer ever.

At the same time, I realized that the faces of American swimming may be much different this coming summer. In the period from 2000-2008, a lot happened. Fastskins came and went. Chloroprene made certain swim pundits heads want to explode. But, perhaps most significantly, a healthy stable of reliable stars stuck around after their college years and became familiar. Now, many of those stars are either retired, thinking about retirement, or taking some time off. Unfortunately, the international swimming does not take a time off, so we are faced with a make or break summer for a new generation.

When was the last time, for instance, USA fielded a team without Aaron Peirsol swimming both backstrokes? Peirsol has been a mainstay since his silver medal performance in Sydney. He's been there consistently cleaning up the medals with a few hiccups mostly from his own teammates. Now we face the possibility of a World Championships without him. In this case, America has so much depth that it may not be a young gun stepping up on the team. Randall Bal has continued inching his way up the all-time rankings. Peter Marshall revived a once dead international career. Nick Thoman looked great racing at US Open after missing the team. Matt Grevers acquitted himself quite well in Beijing. A generation ago Piersol would have likely retired after four years in Austin along with the rest of them and Tyler Clary might be the next best thing- and he still might be.

In the breaststroke, the void left by the possible departure of Brendan Hansen is cavernous. No other American medalists waiting in the wings. Mark Gangloff has been consistent but never world best. Scott Spann, the heir apparent, has been mired by injury. Unlike backstroke, the US is somewhat lacking at this point. You need to be able to go 59 low to be competitive internationally now, and Hansen is still the only American under a minute. Is it too late to convince Ed Moses to make a comeback?

Butterfly would seem a sure bet with that North Baltimore kid still hanging around- however there has been discussion of an abridged event program for Mr. Phelps. I can't decide whether that means Phelps will only swim the 100 fly to focus on shorter events and clear up any ambiguity as to whether Michael Cavic can compete with him or whether he'll do 200 fly to lower the world record because he wasn't satisfied with his Beijing swim. Or whether he will swim both. However, if he doesn't contest one of these, with Ian Crocker possibly driving cross country playing guitar, Team USA will have to finally confront their butterfly future. The next highest ranked butterflyer in America is recent graduate Gil Stovall, followed by Davis Tarwater. The best of the rest is definitely Stanford Freshmen Bobby Bollier.

The IMs, particularly the 400, may also feel the loss of mainstays Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps. Tyler Clary looks poised to step up in this event. I don't know the status of perpetual bridesmaid Robert Margalis. In either case, there is a long way to go to challenge Laszlo Cseh as no other Americans have broken 4:10 besides Phelps and Lochte.

The sprint events are even more intriguing. We haven't heard much from the cast of America's dramatic relays this summer. Cullen Jones, Garrett Weber-Gale and Jason Lezak have been relatively quiet since Beijing. Nathan Adrian certainly seems poised to build on strong summer and remains America's best young sprinter. Alex Righi lost a swim-off to Adrian and a possible relay spot in Omaha. France's sprint machine is still churning abroad and ready to dethrone last summers champions.

The picture should start to clear itself in the next few months. The college championship season will flow into the big spring meets, followed by World Championship trials. I'll try and keep up every step in the way.



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#44
Anonymous Coward   January 30, 2009 at 8:43pm
is nick d'innocenzo considered a better swimmer overall (including sc and lc) than matt thompson?
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#43
Texas   January 30, 2009 at 7:47pm
Ipinesol has a tennis racket given to him by federer,from
U.S. open. They keep in touch he said in the austin paper here.
Very cool indeed!
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#42
Darren Grose   January 30, 2009 at 3:33pm
very true said:
Last night watching Federer play you couldn't help but think of
Peirsol
You are a true swimming fan my friend.
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#41
Chris DeSantis   January 30, 2009 at 12:33pm
He went by the name Michael alternately growing up in California.
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#40
Anonymous Coward   January 30, 2009 at 12:22pm
Why do americans always call him michael cavic? his name is milorad
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#39
Cali Swimmer   January 29, 2009 at 2:59pm
we here in california that its going to be someline
of clothing,he and his sister. She is setting to be
going to london in 2012 in triatholon. Wow! she
looks great and is entered in every race coming up
this year. So this time they go one in tri other in swimming
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#38
Very True   January 29, 2009 at 12:12pm
we will never see the likes again!The big news on
Peirsol is it he's writing a book ? Theres been rumors
brewing about so many things, what a book that would
be.On his web site he's like at some summit for swimming
and talks about his plans for the future.That guy from universal
sports was wrong he's not going anywhere,he's not retiring!!What
a relief, theres no one who is more consistant than Peirsol.
Last night watching Federer play you couldn't help but think of
Peirsol, he feeds on being counted out . Great ones always do.
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#37
Anonymous Coward   January 28, 2009 at 8:06pm
lets face it
absolutely nobody can match phelps, lochte, piersol, crocker, or hansen
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#36
Peter_Galick   January 28, 2009 at 9:33am
Durham said:
Galick, yes, that's who I meant. and look at his 200 LCM...he faded & lost his kick in the last 50 almost every time, whereas his 200 SCM record was miles ahead of the pack. (Someone dig up that video of his 200SCM race where he destroyed a young Kitajima....)

'convert' his SCM times, and they blow away his LCM times, particularly in the 200. He benefited greatly from his walls/pullouts in short-course yards & meters.
Again, I'm not discounting his still unmatched ability on the walls in SCM breaststroke, but to say that he wasn't a good LCM swimmer is absurd. To a point he reminds me of Leveaux, a great LCM swimmer, but Inhumanely fast in SCM. The fact remains, you don't win Olympic silver medals without being a good LCM swimmer.
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#35
Chris DeSantis   January 28, 2009 at 9:29am
You know what...check that. I think I will write one but not about Beisel or Knutson. There is a fresher angle to come at it from.
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#34
Chris DeSantis   January 28, 2009 at 9:13am
Equal Time said:
Chris - When does your next generation WOMEN come out ? ...or is it Beisel & Knutson ..end of discussion.
Yeah I kind of feel like it was addressed in the Junior Pan-Pacs wrap up (blog and comments). Not sure if it should get its own post right now.
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#33
James Carey   January 28, 2009 at 9:11am
Look for Staab in the 100 Fly. He's got the size and the speed to be a big threat in that event.

Adrian, GWG and Cullen Jones are definitely the face of American sprinting. Will BWT 100 time ever rank him as high as he is in the 50? Don't forget about Grevers either.
America's future is bright and fine, as long as men's collegiate programs hang around and maintain funding.
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#32
Equal Time   January 28, 2009 at 9:10am
Chris - When does your next generation WOMEN come out ? ...or is it Beisel & Knutson ..end of discussion.
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#31
Swim   January 28, 2009 at 8:53am
in response to retired swimmer

you obviously do not remember Bolliers 155 at the US Open this Summer making him the obvious heir to the butterfly events, well at least the 200.
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#30
Durham   January 28, 2009 at 8:02am
Galick, yes, that's who I meant. and look at his 200 LCM...he faded & lost his kick in the last 50 almost every time, whereas his 200 SCM record was miles ahead of the pack. (Someone dig up that video of his 200SCM race where he destroyed a young Kitajima....)

'convert' his SCM times, and they blow away his LCM times, particularly in the 200. He benefited greatly from his walls/pullouts in short-course yards & meters.
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#29
Anonymous Coward   January 28, 2009 at 12:14am
one word....

tom dolan
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#28
Texas   January 27, 2009 at 7:47pm
I suspect that Jimmy Feigen will have a huge summer in 2009, I'm not sayin he'll make the team in the 50 but he'll definately be up there, and as for the 100 he's got a shot if that Eddie Reese training pays off.
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#27
Peter_Galick   January 27, 2009 at 6:38pm
Durhan was talking about Ed Moses, not Eddie Reese. While I must agree he was the short course breaststroke master of disaster, he was good enough in LCM to set the world record in 2001, win silver medals individually in Sydney, and split 59 mid on the winning Sydney medley relay back before anybody had been under a minute LCM.
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#26
As Much As   January 27, 2009 at 3:20pm
well must agree with texas x. Aaron has never been a short course
swimmer. Thats why he went to three olympics,so check again big guy.
Eddie never realiy looks at Aarons short course times ,doesnt matter
only thing that matters to Eddie is long course!
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#25
You Cant Count   January 27, 2009 at 1:06pm
i would agree that nick d'innocenzo will be one of the next amazing swimmers, but come one dude. His name is two words, and if you count the apostraphy then you have 3 words
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#24
Durham   January 27, 2009 at 12:30pm
as much as I love Eddie, he didn't translate well to LCM. compare his SCM and LCM times and it's not even close.
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#23
Texas X's   January 27, 2009 at 11:40am
Peirsol 52 :12 in 100 bk
Peirsol 152:98 in 200 bk
Peirsol was swimmer of the year 2005
Because he said at that time he unplugged and
recharged, go to that gear Peirsol, I can't wait to see it!
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#22
Matt Hargrove   January 27, 2009 at 8:25am
Phelps will be in the mix for backstroke along with Lochte and Peirsol. The backstroke will be one of the more "loaded" events for the U.S. in the next four years. The breaststrokes will pose the biggest problems, but who knows Phelps could take up the breasts as events. He's a 54 mid in short course. I'm not sure what he is in Long course, but we all know he's a pretty decent long course swimmer, so who knows.
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#21
Medina   January 27, 2009 at 4:51am
only piersol under 53?!
sure grevers went 52.9 @ Beijing and Thoman @ US open. Phelps' 53.01 not even training for backstroke and not fully tapered. Not sure bout Bal's best but it's blooming quick.
Reckon a 52.6 to make TEAM for Rome!
A 4x100 backstroke relay would be immense for the US!!
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#20
Yo   January 27, 2009 at 12:09am
one word
nick d'innocenzo

also garren riechel is a pretty filthy breastroker, going 102.9 as a sophmore in high school
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#19
justinkang14   January 26, 2009 at 10:12pm
but peirsol isn't going anywhere for a long time, but phelps might swim the backstroke events and challenge him and grvers, although i expect peirsol to still be the only man under 53, and wats the big news Backstroker Deux?
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#18
Kyle Morrison   January 26, 2009 at 10:09pm
dude grevers is good at everything... dont be suprised if hes competing at the top levels of the 50 and 100 free, 100 back, and 100 fly... and he also has a very good 200 back and 200 free... so watch out for grevers
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#17
justinkang14   January 26, 2009 at 9:51pm
matt grevers is good a back
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#16
Matt Hargrove   January 26, 2009 at 7:25pm
Don't forget about the young talents. Guys like Austin Surhoff (sp? once again) and Matt Thompson. Upcoming guys like Jimmy Feigen and others will be on the world class level by the time 2012 rolls around.
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#15
Retired Swimmer   January 26, 2009 at 6:05pm
ya i see him, mcgill, stabb, dylla, and bollier battling over the next four years for national team spots in both fly events. Especially at the next trials, stovall will be 26/27 then and probably gone with crocker and tarwater, that leaves these guys between 22-24 in their prime battling for the olympics...can't wait!!! my money is on mcgill and berens though, by far the best LCM swimmers outta the group...in my opinion
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#14
Mike Clayton   January 26, 2009 at 5:54pm
I'd say Dave Walters is ok at freestyle.
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#13
Anonymous Coward   January 26, 2009 at 5:25pm
Ricky Berens is a pretty solid relay swimmer/freestyler/butterflyer/IMer
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#12
Enough Said   January 26, 2009 at 3:41pm
check out the top times in 100 bk and
200 bk peirsol has locked it so much!
yet locte has milked that one gold medal
so much it's crazy! How many golds has
Peirsol gotten over the years. No milking
there just Aaron being Aaron. Aaron
if you ever go online which I'm sure you
never do.You will always be the best!!
Thank you , many many times over!!
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#11
Backstroker Deux   January 26, 2009 at 2:49pm
aaronis not going anywhere for a long time!
He's back swimming and intends to go to
worlds, big news is he has major talent.
Thoust not forget hes Aaron!! So put your
minds to rest , he's back rested been
surfing doubles for five weeks in Costa Rica.
Than went sking for a week. He's the most
fit Eddie says he's ever seen him! Kick some
butt Aaron. We need your class, not your
grills hanging from your mouth. P.S Aaron is
coming back with big news!!!!
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#10
Chris DeSantis   January 26, 2009 at 2:03pm
Matt Hargrove said:
What about Magruder (sp?) from Texas in the breaststrokes?
Magruder's bests from last summer were 1:02.33 and 2:15.15. To be competitive internationally you need to be 59 low and 2:08 or better.
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#9
Anonymous Coward   January 26, 2009 at 1:57pm
has brendan offically retired?
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#8
Matt Hargrove   January 26, 2009 at 1:24pm
What about Magruder (sp?) from Texas in the breaststrokes?
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#7
Chris DeSantis   January 26, 2009 at 12:25pm
Good call Retired. It was tough to get all the names I wanted to on the list.
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#6
Retired Swimmer   January 26, 2009 at 12:23pm
what about tyler mcgill from auburn? didnt he get fourth at trials in the 100fly with a 52.2? also i remember him going 143 low in the 200 fly at ncaa's last year...i'd put some money on him to compete for the second spot in those events
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#5
Matt Hargrove   January 26, 2009 at 12:21pm
High schooler, and National Junior Team member, Tim Phillips has been a 52.8 in the LCM 100 fly so given a little bit of a time drop he could be a factor in the Worl scene later this summer.
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#4
Peter_Galick   January 26, 2009 at 12:12pm
Brendan Hansen, Jeremy Linn, and Ed Moses all translated fine between the two courses. A 1:00.6 puts Alexandrov right in the mix with Gangloff, Spann, and Shanteau.
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#3
Chris DeSantis   January 26, 2009 at 11:56am
Austin probably would have gone faster had he not undergone shoulder surgery last spring and missed out on trials. Bollier's best 100 fly LCM was 52.57, Staab's is a two year old 54.40 from when he was a 47 SCY butterflyer. I expect if healthy Staab should be a 51 this summer.
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#2
Durham   January 26, 2009 at 11:51am
SCY doesn't translate well to LCM. so a 'breakout' isn't inevitable.

what is Austin Staab's 100 LCM fly, DeSantis? isn't he faster than Bollier?
and Chad LaTourette should be around for awhile in the distance events.
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#1
Peter_Galick   January 26, 2009 at 11:48am
If I'm not mistaken, scy 100 breast NCAA and American record holder Mike Alexandrov is competing entirely for the US now. I know he hasn't been under a minute LCM, but he has simply put up such good short course times, that a breakout LCM swim is inevitable in my opinion.

I'm really interested to see what Phelps can do in the 100 free. France has been going insane recently, but Eamon Sullivan just came off hip surgery and can't kick for several weeks. He is simply aiming for a relay spot in Roma because he is not expected to be 100%.
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