Swimming Blogs - Jeff Grace

A few weeks ago I sat down and planned out my vacation. After coaching for eleven months I had three weeks to relax and not think about swimming. That was of course if I wasn’t a swimming geek.

So instead of taking the time to catch up on my reading or simply enjoy the weather and sit on the beach I decided to challenge fellow blogger Chris DeSantis to a battle of the minds; which one of use swimming geeks (sorry Chris making an assumption) could predict the Olympic medalists with the most accuracy?

DeSantis accepted the challenge and now we begin. Leading into the games we will be posting our medal predictions for each day of the competition.

We want you to be involved as well, tell us what you think, let us know which one of us you think is going to be victorious on each of the days of competition, who knows what they are talking about and who is full of hot air.

Now let the games begin!

Olympic Games – Day 1 – Swimming

Men’s 400 IM

In the men’s 400 IM the top three in the event, Phelps, Lochte and Cseh out class the rest of the field by a mile. In the last year all three men have made impressive improvements; Lochte 3.66, Cseh 1.64 and Phelps .97. Comparing their best time splits each one them betters the others in at least one of the four legs; butterfly – Phelps – 55.38, backstroke – Lochte – 1:01.40, breaststroke – Cseh – 1:10.55 and freestyle – Phelps – 56.80.

So who will come out on top?

Gold – Michael Phelps – USA – There are too many reasons why Phelps will be victorious; Spitz’s record is on the line, no one has beat him head to head in a major international competition in four years and as always he has not shown all of his cards at the qualifying meet.

Phelps will come away with the win and another world record setting himself up for the opportunity to be the greatest Olympic athlete in history.

Silver – Laslo Cseh – HUN – Cseh had an off year in 2007 which has caused many too under estimate his chances going into the games. His experiences on the international stage have taught him how to win (2005 World Championships) and have also left him disappointed (bronze 2004 Olympics and 5^th at 2007 World Championships).

Cseh is hungry for Olympic success and with improvements in his breaststroke and freestyle he will be able to overtake one of his American competitors but not both.

Bronze - Ryan Lochte – USA – Lochte’s improvements in the last year have been impressive, he has shown he knows how to win on the international stage (gold in the 200 backstroke at 2007 World Championships) and he is an incredible competitor.

Why am I picking Lochte to be third, because I had to pick someone to come third.

This race will be an incredible way to start the Olympic competition.

Men’s 400 meter freestyle

With only fifty eight one-hundredths of a second separating the top four in the event and with several of the remaining top eight swimmers having fantastic international credentials this will be an incredible race.

Gold – Tae-Hwan Park – KOR – Park has been one of the most consistent performers in this event over the last two years. After winning the 2007 world championships he is going into the games with incredible amount of confidence, which can be seen by his comments over the last few days.

Although it will be a stretch for him to live up to his own hype (predicting to break Thorpe’s world record) he has both the speed (ranked 7^th in the 200 free LCM and 1^st in the 200 free SCM) and has consistently shown the ability to out swim his competitors in the back half of the race.

Silver – Peter Vanderkaay - USA – Vanderkaay is the best all round freestyler in the field ranked 3^rd in the 200, 4^th in the 400 and 1^st in the 1500. Just like Park he has both the front end speed and the ability to swim an amazing back half.

Vanderkaay has never been on the medal podium at a major international competition in an individual and because of that I am giving Park a slight advantage.

Bronze – Grant Hackett - AUS – Hackett is going into the games ranked 1^st in the world in the event and his best time is the second fastest swim of all time (3:42.51). It is hard to bet against one of the greatest freestyle swimmers in history, but when Hackett has been challenged on the international stage in this event he has had a hard time coming out on top and in this final he will have plenty of challenges.

Women’s 400 IM

The improvement in the women’s 400 IM event over the last year has been unbelievable, five of the top eight women in this event have improved by over two full seconds. With many of the women making these types of improvement this could be one of the most unpredictable races in games.

Gold – Katie Hoff – USA - Hoff has been the best swimmer in this event in the last four years, winning the 2005 World Championships, 2006 Pan Pacific Championships and 2007 World Championships. Every time there has been a challenge for Hoff to overcome she has done it and in Beijing it will be no different.

Many in the field may have a better front half of this race, but Hoff’s breaststroke split is almost two seconds faster than the rest of the field and she is also going into the games ranked 1^st in the 200 free and 2^nd in both 400 free and 800 free, which means she will dominate the last 200 meters of the event.

Silver - Kristy Coventry – ZIM – Coventry has shown that she knows how to win on the world stage and has been the most dominant backstroker over the last quadrennial. She achieved her best time at the All-American LC Championships last month in Austin, Texas, a meet where it can be assumed occurred while she was still in hard training.

With her experience and with room to drop with a taper she will wind up with the silver around her neck.

Bronze - Stephanie Rice – AUS – Rice has been one of the best 400 IM swimmers in the world over the last two years, but her performance at the Australian Olympic Trials stunned everyone in the swimming world including her coach and herself.

Rice’s tremendous speed in butterfly and backstroke will give her an advantage in the front half of the race, but her breaststroke is her Achilles heel and will be too much for her to overcome to beat Hoff and Coventry.

Women’s 4 x 100 freestyle Relay

This should be an incredible race between the Netherlands, Australia and the United States.

Gold – Australia – The Aussies have made it a mission to beat the Americans in relays at the Olympics ever since the guitar smashing episode and this is a battle which they will win. With Trickett and the emergence of Campbell the Aussies are just too good not to win.

Silver – Netherlands – After breaking the world record earlier this year the Netherlands will be entering the Olympics with the confidence to beat the two best swimming nations, although they will put up a good fight they will fall just short.

Bronze – United States – The American women are just as talented as their counterparts in this event, with this event it is almost the same feeling as I had with Lochte, why am I picking the Americans to come third, because someone has to come third and my gut tells me it is the Americans.